With an estimated 11 million undocumented migrants living in the United States, the idea of implementing mass deportations poses serious logistical, legal, and social challenges. Despite promises of large-scale deportations, data from the Department of Homeland Security and the Pew Research Center show that this group of people has remained at stable levels since 2005, with most being long-term residents. About four in five of these migrants have been in the country for at least a decade, forming communities, contributing to the economy and establishing roots in the United States.

Rights and Due Process

Contrary to what many believe, undocumented migrants cannot be deported immediately; they are protected by the right to due process. This means that, before they are deported, they must have a court hearing. In the face of any mass deportation initiative, the immigration court system, already overburdened and with significant backlogs, would have to be drastically expanded to cope with the caseload. Currently, the system has been accumulating cases for years, and each new case added involves a long wait before a final resolution.

The complexity of deportations

The deportation process is long and complicated, with several steps that require time and resources. First, detainees must be identified and arrested, a task that often begins not with ICE agents, but with local law enforcement.

However, in many cities, there are laws that limit cooperation between local law enforcement agencies and ICE, making it difficult for ICE to access people in custody.

In addition, it is not enough to detain an undocumented migrant. Once detained, the migrant must remain in a detention center or diversion program while awaiting their hearing with an immigration judge. These detention centers have limited capacity, and many are already operating at capacity.

Legal and diplomatic implications

A mass deportation program would also have legal implications. Human rights organizations have already anticipated that such measures could lead to multiple lawsuits, questioning the legality and respect for the rights of immigrants. In addition, destination countries must cooperate to receive deportees, which adds a diplomatic layer to the process. Without the cooperation of the recipient country, deportation becomes even more complicated.

ICE Resources and the Challenge of Implementation

With approximately 20,000 ICE agents and support staff, a key question arises: Will this force be enough to search, find, and process millions of people? In a scenario of mass deportation, it would be necessary to allocate more resources, train new agents and expand the capacity of detention centers. Without these extensions, the effort would be unsustainable.

Damage to the economy

A new report from the American Immigration Council, an immigration rights research and policy firm, estimates that deporting even one million undocumented immigrants a year would cost more than $88 billion annually, for a total of $967.9 billion over ten years.

The report acknowledges that there are significant cost variables depending on how such an operation would be carried out and states that its estimate does not take into account the loss of workers’ tax revenue or the greater economic loss if people chose to self-deport and U.S. companies lost labor.

The report estimates that a one-time effort to deport even more people in a single year could cost about $315 billion, including roughly $167 billion to detain immigrants en masse.

According to the group, the two biggest costs would be hiring additional staff to carry out deportation raids and building and operating mass detention centers. “There would be no way to carry out this mission without mass detention as an intermediate step,” the report states. Trump campaign officials agree that one of the biggest logistical challenges in any mass deportation effort would be to build and operate new detention centers as a temporary solution.

Stephen Miller, Trump’s senior adviser, has repeatedly claimed that if Trump wins the presidency, his team plans to build facilities to house between 50,000 and 70,000 people. By comparison, the total population in U.S. prisons and jails in 2022, including people in local, county, state, and federal prisons, currently stands at 1.9 million people.

What can we do?

The implementation of a mass deportation program is a challenge that requires a considerable investment in resources, time, and cooperation between different local, federal, and international entities.

The complexity of the process and the long time each case takes highlight that the reality of mass deportation is not as straightforward as it is portrayed in the speech.

However, in this scenario, it is essential to have the support of an immigration lawyer. At Eagan Immigration, we offer free evaluations to determine the best path forward in your specific case.

You can call us at 202-709-6439 to schedule your free appointment or do it at this link.